Proposal four is in a dead heat. That's according to WILX's exclusive new "Voice of the Voter" poll done by Epic-MRA.
Opposition to the proposal is two points greater than those in favor--42 percent are in favor, while 44 percent are against. Our poll sampled 600 people and has a margin of error of plus or minus four points. The two point lead is well within the four-point margin.
Proposal four is the tightest race out of all the proposals, but those who would like to see it voted down, might have reason rejoice.
"Again, the impact of the no on everything dealing with the constitution message has probably had an impact on that as well as other ballot proposals," said Bernie Porn, a pollster at Epic-MRA
The trend from our last poll shows that support of prop four is declining. Previously 55 percent were in support of the proposal. That number has dropped 13 points.
"The biggest reason why you would go from 55 percent supporting the idea, liking the idea to people saying 'well this is an amendment to the constitution,' therefore looking at it with some pause," said Porn.
The number could possibly change because 11 percent of voters are undecided. Although, as Porn explained many people who haven't looked at the proposals yet tend to either not vote on the issue or to vote no on proposals because they don't feel informed enough to make a decision.
Dora Shultz already voted, yes on four through absentee ballot. She feels strongly people deserve the option of quality in-home care.
"I've tried taking care of my mother and my aunt, and it's a lot of hard work,"said Dora Shultz of Lansing. "I don't feel that I'm qualified. So you need to have qualified people that know how to take care of people in their home."
Dan Salingo feels just as strongly. He voted no on proposal four.
"I took care of my mother… when she was dying," said Dan Salingo of Lansing. "It was the greatest time in our lives that we were together and the last thing I would want to do is pay somebody for me to take care of my own mother."
If passed the law would require care givers to pay union dues.
"I think there are some very relevant things that belong in the constitution, I don't think bargaining rights, I don't think the buzz things of the day are the things that should be in the constitution," said Bunny Powers of Lansing, who voted no on proposal four. "It should be a broad document. That deals with the way we live."
Looking deeper into the numbers, one can find some interesting analyses into voter trends.
Breaking the polling numbers down by age groups, shows those 18-34 years-old support the proposal. Seniors are divided on the issue, and voters ages 35-64 show strong opposition to proposal four.
Another interesting insight, is looking at union voters. Porn says union members aren't supporting prop 4 as much as they are unanimous on other union issues on the ballot.
"Instead of just doing TV ads, that they are communicating with union members, because there isn't unanimity among union members families," said Porn.
Proposal four has among the highest positive ratings, Porn says in part due to the large number of television ads in favor of the proposal.