To me, Michigan State's best bowl game bet is to return to Orlando where the Spartans played in the Champp's Sports Bowl last December 27th and lost 24-21 to Boston College. But that game will be New Year's Day and the likely opponent is the loser of this Saturday's Florida vs. Georgia game. Michigan State would still have a chance at the Rose Bowl with three more wins, likely play in Orlando with two more, likely New Year's Day in Tampa with one more and losing all three likely sends them to the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio although a return to the Champp's Bowl in that unlikely scenario would also still be out there.
In most of the ties for the Big Ten title, Michigan State would get the Rose Bowl nod because Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota all played division one double A teams in their non conference schedules and those games won't count. MSU played all division one teams and that would determine their fate. Of course Michigan State has to win at Penn State on November 22nd and that's no done deal. But November is here and there are some key games that will determine who ends up where.
Since Bo Schembechler died, November 16, 2006, Michigan's record is 11-12. Michigan State is 14-9 and the teams split the two games they played since then. I see Michigan somehow winning at Purdue this Saturday and again at home against an injury riddled Northwestern team. But I see losses at Minnesota and Ohio State. That would leave Michigan 4-8, the most losses in school history dating back to 1879. Rich Rod better go find some better players than what he is fielding at the moment.