Jason: When this blog began, I was pretty geeked to be spewing my prognastications on fantasy football and the games themselves. I've gone from Biff Tannen armed with a sports almanac to the guy in the corner of the racetrack bar trying to scrape 5 bucks together to bet the perfecta in the 8th race. Last week was so miserable I began wondering if my instincts were completely wrong. So, inspired by George Costanza, I've decided to go against myself this week and bet the opposite. Who knows, maybe it will pay off like it did for George below:
If it works, maybe I will again be on my way to owning Biff's Pleasure Palace. Onto this weeks picks.
Jeff: Or maybe you'll just continue to wallow in the pit of misery you've created for yourself.
Donovan McNabb vs. Arizona
Don says he's not going to be gunshy after getting benched last week. He better not be, because he should have plenty of opportunities to throw when Arizona lights up the scoreboard.
Larry Johnson at Oakland
Don't look now, but here comes the LJ train. Don't be surprised if the suddenly tight-lipped Johnson starts shredding defenses to finish out the year and further muddle the decision of whom to draft first next year.
Andre Johnson vs. Jacksonville
After three straight games with 130 yards receiving earlier this year, Johnson has cooled. He's put up respectable numbers but hardly any TD's. Look for that to change this week.
Chris Johnson vs. Detroit
I doubt this needs explanation.
DeAngelo Williams vs. Green Bay
He's been hot for the last three games and the Packers have an atrocious run defense.
Tony Romo vs. Seattle
Last week's game proved Romo is back to normal and he's going against a wretched defense in a huge game for the Cowboys. Expect lots of TO again.
Jason's Risk/Reward Players
Warrick Dunn vs. New Orleans
On paper this is a great matchup for the rejuvenated Dunn who isn't splitting carries anymore with Earnest Graham on the shelf. But, if the Saints blow the game open, it will force the Bucs to throw all day. See Monday's line for Ryan Grant-- 60 yards in the 1st quarter... 7 for the rest of the game.
Ben Roethlisberger at New England
Great game for Big Ben last week, but I wouldn't trust him to start lighting everybody up-- especially when he's on his back 6 times a game.
Eddie Royal at NY Jets
You may hear the phrase "hitting the rookie wall" this week. Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton and Eddie Royal have all slowed near the end of the season. Royal makes me extra nervous since he also returns kicks.
Jeff's Risk/Reward Players
Gus Frerotte vs. Chicago
Frerotte had a solid game against the Bears earlier this year, minus a few interceptions, and he gets them at home this time. For all the reputation the Bears D has garnered over the years, they do a miserable job against the pass. The again, Gus Frerotte is Gus Frerotte. He could wake up and realize this at any time, followed by a 192 yard 4 INT game.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Carolina
He struggled against the Saints Monday night and he's playing a much better defense this week. Greg Jennings is questionable (as of Wednesday night), making Rodgers an even less attractive option.
Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden vs. Kansas City
The Chiefs can't stop anybody under any circumstances but the Raiders are way too unpredictable to make their RBs rock-solid starts.
Jason's Players to Avoid Like Their Name is Alge Crumpler
Jake Delhomme at Green Bay
I don't like any QB playing at Lambeau once the weather changes-- especially a guy who's looked as bad at times as Delhomme has.
Duece McCallister at Tampa Bay
Bucs D, Drew Brees on record-setting pace, Pierre Thomas. Three reasons why Duece should stay on your bench.
Santana Moss vs. NY Giants
Moss never puts up good numbers against the Giants and if that D can slow Arizona's pass offense down, imagine what it will do to the Redskins.
Jeff's Players to Avoid as if They've Been Dipped in Ebola
Matt Cassel vs. Pittsburgh
It's been a nice couple weeks for Matty, but he did it against the Jets and Dolphins, two of the worst secondaries in the league. The Steelers are on another level and should bring Cassel back to earth.
Peyton Hillis vs. New York Jets
While the Jets pass D is garbage, their run D is among the best in the league, as show by their domination of the Titans last week.
Marques Colston vs. Tampa Bay
Drew Brees seems to have shifted his attention to Lance Moore, leaving Colston owners with the proverbial turd on a stick. Do you really expect him to have a bounce-back game against the best pass D in the league?
Jason's Bizarro World Picks
Thanksgiving Day Games
Tennessee (-11) at Detroit
Once in awhile the Lions put it all together for the national audience on Thanksgiving and I think this will be one of those days... so, I'm sure the Titans will crush them.
Dallas (-12.5) vs. Seattle
This line is way too high. Seattle is starting to play a little better and should be able to stay within 10 of the 'Boys... so go with the blowout.
Philadelphia (-3) vs. Arizona
All the talk this week is about whether McNabb and Andy Reid will even be in Philly next year. I don't think they can play that much better than last week's debacle to derail Kurt Warner and Co.... so of course they will.
NCAA Rivalry Games
Oklahoma (-7) at Oklahoma St.
OK St. getting 7 at home against the rival when they are desperate to prove they belong with the big boys? Upset special of the week as the Cowboys further clutter the BCS standings. Yeah... Oklahoma will win by 14, I guess.
Texas (-35) vs Texas A & M
Sure, the Aggies are about as bad as my record in picking these games, but no way they lose to their rivals by 35. Way.
Notre Dame (+32) at USC
Some people think USC's mascot will be running like it's at Belmont b/c of all the points the Trojans will hang on Charlie Weis's Domers-- I'm one of those people... and obviously wrong.
Chicago (+3) at Minnesota
Minnesota giving three at home in a game they need is almost the Lock of the Century, especially against the Bears. Forte gets shut down and Peterson runs wild... and apparently Chicago wins.
NY Jets (-7.5) vs. Denver
OK, I have news for everyone thinking the Jets and Favre are the team to beat in the AFC now that they knocked off Tennessee. It's still Favre-- the master of the game-changing INT. Have you forgotten this is a Jets team that lost to Oakland and almost to KC. Mmm hmm.
San Francisco (+7) at Buffalo
I just hate the thought of a west-coast team going cross country to play early and in the cold. So go with San Fran!
Jason's Lock of the Century
Central Michigan (-10) at Eastern Michigan
Last week an awful team (Syracuse) rallied around its fired coach (Greg Robinson) to pull the upset (Notre Dame). This week it will be Eastern... Jeff Genyk... and Central.
Last Week: 1-8
Lock of the Century: 4-4-1
Jeff's Thanksgiving Day Picks
Titans (-11) at Detroit
The Lions might have had a chance if Tennessee was coming in undefeated. Instead they come in humiliated and angry. This should be a bloodbath.
Seattle (+12.5) at Dallas
The Seahawks have been playing close with much better teams for the last few weeks and 12.5 is a huge number in the NFL. Dallas struggled at times with a less-talented San Francisco team so don't be surprised if Seattle wins outright.
Philadelphia (-3) vs. Arizona
This just seems like a trap game. The Eagles are the laughingstock of the league after their last two game. They're not nearly as bad as they looked against Cincinnati and Baltimore while the Cardinals are getting a little too much love for a team that can't run the ball.
Jeff's NCAA Picks
USC/Notre Dame +48
The Trojans will probably scope 48 points on their own. Notre Dame will be able to score a little bit so the over is an easy cover.
Central Michigan (-11) at Eastern Michigan
I don't care if this is the last game for EMU's coach. His team stinks and the Chips are trying to play their way into a bowl game.
Alabama (-14) vs. Auburn
'Bama hasn't beaten Auburn since 2001. The Crimson Tide are the #1 team in the country based on a scary defense while the Tigers can't move the ball to save their lives. If it were possible for a team to score negative points, it would happen in this game.
Jeff's Sunday NFL Picks
Denver/New York Jets +47.5
The Jets will score at will, while Denver should be able to throw the ball all over the field. Bonus Pick: lay the 7.5 points with the Jets.
Miami (-7.5) at St. Louis
The Dolphins need this game badly for the playoff hunt while the Rams are just playing out the string. Things might be close if Steven Jackson plays, so the hook could come back to haunt you.
Indianapolis (-5) at Cleveland
Welcome back, Derek Anderson! Say hello to Dwight Freeney. And good luck stopping the Colts offense.
Last Week: 7-2
Lock of the Century: 6-4